2021 Oscar Predictions

Oscar nominations are coming out on March 15. 

Not gonna lie, the past year was not exactly the best for me with movie watching. I think just the general dreadfulness of the pandemic made it difficult to be invested in films. Don't take this as me slamming the films though. 

But I wanted to give out my annual Oscar predictions. Again, for Best Picture, I'm listing ten films though I, again, won't be surprised if they only do eight or nine nominees. 

These choices are made through my own weird talley system. 

While I usually do predictions for all the categories (except short subjects films) this year I'm only doing best picture, directing, acting, and writing. 

Here are my predictions:

Picture:

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

The Father

Mank

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Minari

Nomadland

One Night in Miami

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Director:

Lee Isaac Chung - Minari

Emerald Fennell - Promising Young Woman

David Fincher - Mank

Aaron Sorkin - The Trial of the Chicago 7

Chloe Zhao - Nomadland

Actor:

Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal

Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom*

Anthony Hopkins - The Father

Delroy Lindo - Da 5 Bloods

Steve Yeun - Minari

Actress:

Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Sidney Flanigan - Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman

Frances McDormand - Nomadland

Casey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

Sup. Actor:

Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7

Chadwick Boseman - Da 5 Bloods

Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah

Leslie Odom Jr. - One Night in Miami

Paul Raci - Sound of Metal

Sup. Actress: 

Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm*

Olivia Colman - The Father

Amanda Seyfriend - Mank

Youn Yuh-jung - Minari

Helena Zengel - News of the World

Original Screenplay:

Mank

Minari

Never Rarely Sometimes Rarely

Promising Young Woman

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Adapted Screenplay:

The Father

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

News of the World

Nomadland

One Night in Miami

What do you think will be nominated?

Follow the blog on Facebook

Check out the weekly Twitch stream

Support the blog on Patreon

 

2019 Oscar Predictions Round 1

You know what this is. Oscar nominations are announced on Jan. 13, here are my predicted nominees:

Picture:
1917
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Uncut Gems

Director
Noah Baumbach - Marriage Story
Bong Joon Ho - Parasite
Sam Mendes - 1917
Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver - Marriage Story
Taron Egerton - Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
Adam Sandler - Uncut Gems

Actress:
Awkwafina - The Farewell
Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong'o - Us
Charlize Theron - Bombshell
Renee Zellweger - Judy

Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino - The Irishman
Joe Pesci - The Irishman
Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Supporting Actress:
Laura Dern - Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers
Florence Pugh - Little Women
Margot Robbie - Bombshell
Zhao Shuzhen - The Farewell

Original Screenplay:
The Farewell
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Adapted Screenplay:
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes

Art Direction:
1917
The Irishman
Joker
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Cinematography:
1917
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
The Lighthouse
Joker

Costume Design:
Dolemite Is My Name
Downton Abbey
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman

Editing:
1917
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Makeup/Hair:
Joker
Judy
Rocketman

Sound Editing:
1917
Avengers: Endgame
Ford v. Ferrari
Joker
Rocketman

Sound Mixing:
1917
Avengers: Endgame
Ford v. Ferrari
Joker
Rocketman

Visual Effects:
1917
Alita: Battle Angel
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King

Score:
1917
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Us

Song:
"Into the Unknown" - Frozen II
"Stand Up" - Harriet
"Spirit" - The Lion King
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" - Rocketman
"Glasgow (No Place Like Home)" - Wild Rose

Updated this after the Critics Choice Awards on Jan. 12, the night before the awards.

Animated Film:
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Toy Story 4

Documentary:
American Factory
Apollo 11
For Sama
Honeyland
One Child Nation

Foreign Language Film:
Atlantics
Les Miserables
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire

MY 2018 OSCAR PREDICTIONS

With the Oscar nominations coming out on Jan. 23, here are my predictions. Sadly I haven't seen a lot of these films. 2018 was not a good moving going year for me. Here's hoping I fix that this for 2019.

Anyway here are my predictions:


BEST PICTURE: I'm doing ten because that's their maximum. I won't be surprised if there's only 8 or 9. 

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Crazy Rich Asians
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star Is Born

Best Director:
Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Peter Farrelly - Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite
Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman

Best Lead Actor:

Christian Bale - Vice
Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
Ethan Hawke - First Reformed
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book

Best Lead Actress:
Emily Blunt - Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close - The Wife
Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Timothee Chalamat - Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Michael B. Jordon - Black Panther

Please let me be wrong and Sam Elliott gets nominated instead of Timothee Chalamat! Nothing against Chalamat, but Sam Elliot deserves it so damn badly!

Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams - Vice
Claire Foy - First Man
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone - The Favourite
Rachel Weisz - The Favourite

Original Screenplay:
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma

Adapted Screenplay:
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

Art Direction/Production Design:
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

Cinematography:
Cold War
The Favourite
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma

Costume Design:
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots

Film Editing:
The Favourite
First Man
Mission: Impossible - Fallout
Roma
Widows

Hair/Makeup:
Bohemian Rhapsody
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

Sound Editing:
Black Panther
First Man
Mission: Impossible - Fallout
A Quiet Place
A Star Is Born

Sound Mixing:
Black Panther
First Man
Mission: Impossible - Fallout
A Quiet Place
A Star Is Born

Visual Effects:
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Ready Player One

Original Score:
Black Panther
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

Original Song:
"All the Stars" - Black Panther
"Girl in the Movies" - Dumplin'
"The Place Where the Lost Things Go" - Mary Poppins Returns
"Trip a Little Light Fantastic" - Mary Poppins Returns
"Shallow" - A Star Is Born

Animated Film:
Incredible 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Foreign Language:
Burning (South Korea)
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

Documentary:

Free Solo
Minding the Gap
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Won't You Be My Neighbors?

90TH ACADEMY AWARD PREDICTIONS

Short and sweet. Here are my picks for who I think will win at the 90th Acadamy Awards. I may make changes on my predictions before the ceremony but for now, this is where it stands.

I'm also ranking who I think will win. The first one is my predicted winner, the bottom pick I'm not holding my breath on winning.

Updated a few categories since my originally publishing.

PICTURE:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Get Out
3. Lady Bird
4. The Shape of Water
5. Dunkirk
6. Call Me By Your Name
7. The Post
8. Darkest Hour
9. Phantom Thread

DIRECTOR:
1. Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
2. Jordan Peele - Get Out
3. Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
4. Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
5. Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread

LEAD ACTOR:
1. Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
2. Timothee Chalamat - Call Me By Your Name
3. Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
4. Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
5. Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel, Esq. 

LEAD ACTRESS:
1. Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water 
3. Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
4. Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
5. Meryl Streep - The Post

Truth be told, Lead Actress is basically a four-way tie between the top four. I won't be surprised if any of those wins tonight.

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
3. Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water
4. Woody Harrelson - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Christopher Plummer - All the Money in the World

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1. Allison Janney - I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
3. Mary J. Blige - Mudbound
4. Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water
5. Lesley Manville - Phantom Thread

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
1. Get Out
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Big Sick

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Molly's Game
3. The Disaster Artist
4. Mudbound
5. Logan

ART DIRECTION/PRODUCTION DESIGN:
1. The Shape of Water
2. Dunkirk
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Beauty and the Beast
5. Darkest Hour

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Mudbound 
5. Darkest Hour

Just give Roger Deakins an Oscar already! Please

COSTUME DESIGN:
1. Phantom Thread
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. The Shape of Water
4. Darkest Hour
5. Victoria & Abdul

FILM EDITING:
1. Baby Driver
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. I, Tonya

HAIR/MAKEUP:
1. Darkest Hour
2. Wonder
3. Victoria & Abdul

SOUND EDITING:
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Baby Driver
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

SOUND MIXING:
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Baby Driver
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

VISUAL EFFECTS:
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. War for the Planet of the Apes
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
5. Kong: Skull Island

ORIGINAL SCORE:
1. The Shape of Water
2. Dunkirk
3. Phantom Thread
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

ORIGINAL SONG:
1. "Remember Me" - Coco
2. "Stand Up for Something" - Marshall
3. "This Is Me" - The Greatest Showman
4.  "Mighty River" - Mudbound
5.  "Mystery of Love" - Call Me By Your Name

The top three songs are basically in a three-way tie.

ANIMATED FILM:
1. Coco
2. Loving Vincent
3. The Breadwinner
4. The Boss Baby
5. Ferdinand

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
1. The Square
2. A Fantastic Woman
3. Loveless
4. On Body and Soul
5. The Insult

DOCUMENTARY:
1. Faces Places
2. Icarus
3. Last Men in Aleppo
4. Strong Island
5. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail

I feel so guilty not getting around to watching any of these docs even though some of them are on Netflix.

As for the short films:
Animated: Dear Basketball
Documentary: Edith+Eddie 
Live Action: Dekalb Elementary

I don't have much of a system for predicting shorts so I'm basically making the same predictions as Awardscircuit.com. It's a great website about movie news and Oscar buzz. Check them out.

What are your predictions? Share them in the comments.

Oscar Predictions Round Two

Keeping this one simple. * = predicted winner

Picture:
The Big Sick
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out*
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Director:
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water*
Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Jordan Peele - Get Out

Lead Actor:
Timothy Chalamat - Call My By Your Name
James Franco - The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour*
Robert Pattinson - Good Time

Lead Actress:
Jessica Chastain  - Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri*
Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird

Sup. Actor:
Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Armie Hammer - Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri*
Michael Stuhlbarg - Call Me By Your Name

Sup. Actress:
Mary J. Blige - Mudbound
Hong Chau - Downsizing
Holly Hunter - The Big Sick
Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird*

Original Screenplay:
The Big Sick
Get Out*
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Adapted Screenplay:
The Beguiled
Call Me By Your Name*
The Disaster Artist
Molly’s Game
Mudbound

Production Design:
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water*

Cinematography:
Blade Runner 2049*
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Costume Design:
Beauty and the Beast
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread*
The Shape of Water
Wonder Woman

Film Editing:
Baby Driver*
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Hair/Makeup:
Darkest Hour*
I, Tonya
Wonder

Sound Editing:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Logan
The Shape of Water*

Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Logan
The Shape of Water*

Visual Effects:
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes*


Original Score:
Blader Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water*

Original Song:
Coco - “Remember Me”*
Cries from Syria - “Prayers for This World”
The Greatest Showman - “This Is Me”
Marshall - “Stand Up for Something”
Mudbound - “Mighty River”

Animated Film:
The Breadwinner
Coco*
Despicable Me 3
The LEGO Batman Movie
Loving Vincent

Foreign Language:
A Fantastic Woman
Foxtrot
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square*

Documentary:
Chasing Coral
City of Ghosts
Ex Libris
Faces Places
Jane*

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS

It's only a matter of time before the 89th Academy Awards, so here are my final predictions.

Picture:

1. La La Land

2. Moonlight

3. Manchester by the Sea

4. Hell or High Water

5. Arrival

6. Lion

7. Hacksaw Ridge

8. Fences

9. Hidden Figures

Director:

1. Damien Chazelle - La La Land

2. Barry Jenkins - Moonlight

3. Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea

4. Denis Villeneuve - Arrival

5. Mel Gibson - Hacksaw Ridge

Actor:

1. Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea

2. Ryan Gosling - La La Land

3. Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic

4. Denzel Washington - Fences

5. Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge

Actress:

1. Emma Stone - La La Land

2. Natalie Portman - Jackie

3. Isabelle Huppert - Elle

4. Ruth Negga - Loving

5. Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins

Sup. Actor:

1. Mahershala Ali - Moonlight

2. Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water

3. Dev Patel - Lion

4. Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea

5. Michael Shannon - Nocturnal Animals

Sup. Actress:

1. Viola Davis - Fences

2. Naomie Harris - Moonlight

3. Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea

4. Nicole Kidman - Lion

5. Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures

Original Screenplay:

1. Manchester by the Sea

2. Hell or High Water

3. La La Land

4. The Lobster

5. 20th Century Women

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Moonlight

2. Arrival

3. Hidden Figures

4. Lion

5. Fences

Animated:

1. Zootopia

2. Kubo and the Two Strings

3. Moana

4. My Life as a Zucchini

5. The Red Turtle

Art Direction:

1. La La Land

2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

3. Arrival

4. Hail, Caesar!

5. Passengers

Cinematography:

1. La La Land

2. Moonlight

3. Arrival

4. Lion

5. Silence

Costume:

1. Jackie

2. La La Land

3. Florence Foster Jenkins

4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

5. Allied

Film Editing:

1. La La Land

2. Hacksaw Ridge

3. Moonlight

4. Arrival

5. Hell or High Water

Hair and Makeup:

1. Star Trek Beyond

2. A Man Called Ove

3. Suicide Squad

Sound Editing:

1. Hacksaw Ridge

2. Arrival

3. La La Land

4. Deepwater Horizon

5. Sully

Sound Mixing:

1. Hacksaw Ridge

2. Arrival

3. La La Land

4. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Visual Effects:

1. The Jungle Book

2. Doctor Strange

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

4. Kubo and the Two Strings

5. Deepwater Horizon

Original Score:

1. La La Land

2. Lion

3. Moonlight

4. Jackie

5. Passengers

Original Song:

1. “City of Stars” - La La Land

2. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” - Trolls

3. “Auditions (I Fools Who Dream)” - La La Land

4. “How Far I’ll Go” - Moana

5. “The Empty Chair” - Jim: The James Foley Story

Documentary:

1. O.J.: Made in America

2. 13th

3. I Am Not Your Negro

4. Life, Animated

5. Fire at Sea

Foreign Film:

1. Toni Erdmann

2. The Salesman

3. A Man Called Ove

4. Tanna
5. Land of Mine

Animated Short: Pearl
Documentary Short: Joe's Violin
Live Action Short: Ennemis Interieurs